Indicators Of U.S. Dollar Strength And Weakness (2024)

WWS Swiss Financial Consulting SA

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Summary

  • The US Dollar Index (USDX) is widely used as a measure of the strength of the US dollar.
  • The Dollar Index is based mainly on the euro.
  • The USD/EUR currency pair does not always correlateexactly with the USDX.
  • Investors should not rely only on the US Dollar Index but also check the USD/EUR currency pair when they want to know how the dollar is doing in forex markets.

The US Dollar Index (USDX) is practically the most widely used measure of the strength of the US dollar. Investors and traders usually refer to the Dollar Index when they want to know how the dollar is doing. The Dollar Index is also the basis of some derivatives, and traders can hedge on the dollar by means of the Dollar Index.

The Dollar Index is based on a basket of currencies of some of the most important US trading partners. The weighting of the currencies in the basket is as follows:

U.S. Dollar Index

It is evident that the euro, with a weighting of 57.6%, is the most important currency in the basket. Japan is second with 13.6% and the British pound sterling with 11.9%.

One can compare the Dollar Index chart with a chart of the USD/EUR currency pair. It should be noted that the Dollar Index predated the introduction of the euro as a legal currency on January 1, 1999.

U.S. Dollar Index

In 1999, the Dollar Index was around 100 and then increased to 120. It then fell after the dotcom crisis and went down to 80 by 2005. It remained there until about 2015 when it recovered to near 100.

The USD/EUR (see the chart below) has the dollar at around 1.05 in 1999, but it soon drops to 0.85 as the euro appears as a strong currency. By 2005, the euro has weakened against the dollar and is trading at 1.30 and by 2008 is at 1.60 for a dollar. After the GFC, the euro oscillates between 1.30 and 1.50 until 2015 when it settles at 1.10. In 2017, it recovers to 1.20 only to retreat to 1.10 in 2019. The conclusion to be reached from this account is that dollar weakness does not correspond to euro weakness.

Euro Dollar Exchange Rate (EUR USD) - Historical Chart

If one compares the more recent behavior of the Dollar Index and the USD/EUR currency pair, the situation is different.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

While the Dollar Index has the dollar over 100 in January 2017, it falls to 90 in 2018 and recovers to 95 by July and then hovers around 95 and most recently around 96 to 97. The low point of the Dollar Index in January 1918 corresponds to euro strength at the same time. The euro subsequently weakens to around 1.16 and continues down to 1.10 in the latter half of 2019. This is reflected in a steady Dollar Index at the same time.

Euro

This would tend to support the thesis that the Dollar Index and USD/EUR have correlated in the last three years while this was not the case previously.

The conclusion to be drawn is that the Dollar Index and the USD/EUR currency pair have recently correlated well, but that was not the case in the past. It is clear that in the future one should not rely totally on the Dollar Index to measure the strength of the US dollar against the currencies of major trading partners without checking on the current tendency of the exchange rate of the pair.

It should be kept in mind that the euro has weakened due to ECB QE and other measures designed to keep the euro weak, and that includes low, zero and negative interest rates. The US dollar, on the other hand, still has basic interest rates over zero with the Fed rate currently 1.5% to 1.75%. Due to these factors, the US dollar is stronger against a weaker euro despite the huge federal debt, huge yearly federal deficit and the negative trade balance with the trade war between China and the US still unresolved. If the US has serious problems, the EU has worse problems.

This article was written by

WWS Swiss Financial Consulting SA

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B.A., M.A., University of Pennsylvania,; M.A., (Oxon.); Ph.D. Princeton University Currently CEO of WWS Swiss Financial Consulting SA

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and WWS Swiss Financial Consulting SA (WWW SFC SA) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. WWS SFC SA accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Please consult your own professional adviser before taking investment decisions.The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. Thus, as prices of bonds in an investment portfolio adjust to a rise in interest rates, the value of the portfolio may decline. Special risks are associated with foreign investing, including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments.

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Indicators Of U.S. Dollar Strength And Weakness (2024)

FAQs

Indicators Of U.S. Dollar Strength And Weakness? ›

While there are numerous indicators that can ultimately contribute to the rise and fall of the dollar, reports on the trade balance, nonfarm payroll, GDP, retail sales, and industrial production are most commonly tied to currency movements. Bureau of Economic Analysis. "International Trade and Investment."

How to tell if the dollar is strong or weak? ›

The U.S. dollar is considered strong or weak in comparison to the values of other major currencies. A strong dollar means U.S. exports cost more in foreign markets. A weak dollar means imports are costlier for American consumers to buy. The value of the U.S. dollar fluctuates constantly in response to market demand.

What is used to determine the strength or weakness of a dollar? ›

A currency's strength is determined by the interaction of a variety of local and international factors such as the demand and supply in the foreign exchange markets; the interest rates of the central bank; the inflation and growth in the domestic economy; and the country's balance of trade.

What are the indicators of a weak dollar? ›

A weak dollar refers to a downward price trend in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other foreign currencies. The most commonly compared currency is the Euro, so if the Euro is rising in price compared to the dollar, the dollar is said to be weakening at that time.

How do you measure the strength of the U.S. dollar? ›

The dollar index tracks the relative value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of important world currencies. If the index is rising, it means that the dollar is strengthening against the basket - and vice-versa.

What causes the dollar to strengthen or weaken? ›

The two biggest drivers are central bank policies (interest rates set by the U.S. Federal Reserve and its counterparts in Europe, England, Japan and elsewhere); and economic growth relative to inflation. Those factors often dictate which way money flows.

How do you know if a currency is weak? ›

A weak currency refers to a nation's money that has seen its value decrease in comparison to other currencies. Weak currencies are often thought to be those of nations with poor economic fundamentals or systems of governance.

What drives dollar strength? ›

The dollar strengthens when interest rates rise, and international investors view it as a safe haven for maintaining and increasing value during turbulent economic times. In general, the strength and value of a currency depends on the demand for that currency.

Who benefits from a weaker dollar? ›

A weaker dollar, however, can be good for exporters, making their products relatively less expensive for buyers abroad. Investors can also try to profit from a falling dollar by owning foreign-currency ETFs or investing in U.S. exporting companies.

What is the strength of the dollar based on? ›

One of the key drivers behind the dollar's strength in the past few years has been the relative strength of the U.S. economy and high interest rates. As the Fed signaled it was pausing interest rate hikes last fall, the dollar began to pull back.

Who is hurt by a weaker dollar? ›

A falling dollar diminishes its purchasing power internationally, and that eventually translates to the consumer level. For example, a weak dollar increases the cost to import oil, causing oil prices to rise. This means a dollar buys less gas and that pinches many consumers.

Which group does not benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar? ›

The group that does not benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar is U.S. exporting firms.

Why is a weak dollar good for stocks? ›

A weaker dollar means some foreign consumers and governments get more dollars for every unit of their home currency, which means they can afford to buy more goods and services from U.S. companies.

What backs the US dollar? ›

Prior to 1971, the US dollar was backed by gold. Today, the dollar is backed by 2 things: the government's ability to generate revenues (via debt or taxes), and its authority to compel economic participants to transact in dollars.

What is the strongest currency in the world? ›

Kuwaiti dinar

The Kuwaiti dinar (KWD) is the world's strongest currency, and this is for a number of reasons. For starters, Kuwait has one of the largest oil reserves in the world.

What determines the value of the dollar? ›

Summary. Currency value is determined by aggregate supply and demand. Supply and demand are influenced by a number of factors, including interest rates, inflation, capital flow, and money supply. The most common method to value currency is through exchange rates.

Which statement describes a strong U.S. dollar? ›

A statement that describes a strong U.S. dollar would indicate that you can exchange fewer U.S. dollars for the same amount of another currency than before.

What is an example of a strong currency? ›

You will receive just 0.30 Kuwait dinar after exchanging 1 US dollar, making the Kuwaiti dinar the world's highest-valued currency unit per face value, or simply 'the world's strongest currency'.

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