WWS Swiss Financial Consulting SA
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Summary
- The US Dollar Index (USDX) is widely used as a measure of the strength of the US dollar.
- The Dollar Index is based mainly on the euro.
- The USD/EUR currency pair does not always correlateexactly with the USDX.
- Investors should not rely only on the US Dollar Index but also check the USD/EUR currency pair when they want to know how the dollar is doing in forex markets.
The US Dollar Index (USDX) is practically the most widely used measure of the strength of the US dollar. Investors and traders usually refer to the Dollar Index when they want to know how the dollar is doing. The Dollar Index is also the basis of some derivatives, and traders can hedge on the dollar by means of the Dollar Index.
The Dollar Index is based on a basket of currencies of some of the most important US trading partners. The weighting of the currencies in the basket is as follows:
- Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
- Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
- Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
- Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
- Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
- Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight
It is evident that the euro, with a weighting of 57.6%, is the most important currency in the basket. Japan is second with 13.6% and the British pound sterling with 11.9%.
One can compare the Dollar Index chart with a chart of the USD/EUR currency pair. It should be noted that the Dollar Index predated the introduction of the euro as a legal currency on January 1, 1999.
In 1999, the Dollar Index was around 100 and then increased to 120. It then fell after the dotcom crisis and went down to 80 by 2005. It remained there until about 2015 when it recovered to near 100.
The USD/EUR (see the chart below) has the dollar at around 1.05 in 1999, but it soon drops to 0.85 as the euro appears as a strong currency. By 2005, the euro has weakened against the dollar and is trading at 1.30 and by 2008 is at 1.60 for a dollar. After the GFC, the euro oscillates between 1.30 and 1.50 until 2015 when it settles at 1.10. In 2017, it recovers to 1.20 only to retreat to 1.10 in 2019. The conclusion to be reached from this account is that dollar weakness does not correspond to euro weakness.
Euro Dollar Exchange Rate (EUR USD) - Historical Chart
If one compares the more recent behavior of the Dollar Index and the USD/EUR currency pair, the situation is different.
While the Dollar Index has the dollar over 100 in January 2017, it falls to 90 in 2018 and recovers to 95 by July and then hovers around 95 and most recently around 96 to 97. The low point of the Dollar Index in January 1918 corresponds to euro strength at the same time. The euro subsequently weakens to around 1.16 and continues down to 1.10 in the latter half of 2019. This is reflected in a steady Dollar Index at the same time.
This would tend to support the thesis that the Dollar Index and USD/EUR have correlated in the last three years while this was not the case previously.
The conclusion to be drawn is that the Dollar Index and the USD/EUR currency pair have recently correlated well, but that was not the case in the past. It is clear that in the future one should not rely totally on the Dollar Index to measure the strength of the US dollar against the currencies of major trading partners without checking on the current tendency of the exchange rate of the pair.
It should be kept in mind that the euro has weakened due to ECB QE and other measures designed to keep the euro weak, and that includes low, zero and negative interest rates. The US dollar, on the other hand, still has basic interest rates over zero with the Fed rate currently 1.5% to 1.75%. Due to these factors, the US dollar is stronger against a weaker euro despite the huge federal debt, huge yearly federal deficit and the negative trade balance with the trade war between China and the US still unresolved. If the US has serious problems, the EU has worse problems.
This article was written by
WWS Swiss Financial Consulting SA
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B.A., M.A., University of Pennsylvania,; M.A., (Oxon.); Ph.D. Princeton University Currently CEO of WWS Swiss Financial Consulting SA
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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